Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to accumulate 13.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has received 51.4% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 29th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 37.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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