Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+139/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Jones has garnered 48.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 32.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 6th-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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