Aaron Jones Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Aaron Jones

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Jones Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 13.4 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Aaron Jones has garnered 53.4% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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