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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 7.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.Las Vegas is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given the QB 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas has faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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Jones has been in the #18 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.0% completion rate.The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 62.9% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.Jones's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has been on the field for 44.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #45 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 46.1% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.9% -- #39 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.04 yards per target this season, ranking in the #49 percentile.Kansas City's defense has allowed 150 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.12) against the Chiefs this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 38.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.64. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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