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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Football Team
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Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 6.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.34 yards per target this season, ranking in the #73 percentile.Washington's defense has allowed 183 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #8-most yards per target (9.23) against the WFT this season.The WFT have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.0% of their targets this season, (#4-most in the league).This offense passes the ball 65.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given the QB 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#11-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas has faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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His target share this season has been 6.0% -- #31 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Jones has been in the #28 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 59.4% completion rate.Jones's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has been on the field for 41.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 42.1% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.Washington Football Team cornerbacks rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.Washington Football Team safeties rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.82. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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