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Zach Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Zach Wilson Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 200.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 203.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 200.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In a neutral context, New York has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.The New York Jets are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.The Jets are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive ends rank #25 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #31-best in the league, Wilson has passed for183 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #38-best in the league, completing passes at a 56.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Wilson has been #36 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.09 yards per target.New York's offensive has kept pressure off Zach Wilson for 2.54 seconds on average this year (#24-most in the NFL).New York has run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jets have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).In terms of passing efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense is #2-best. This is because they allowed 6.88 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive tackles rank #6 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Buccaneers, they've stacked the box on 11.9% of their plays this season, #23-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, the Jets have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and means Wilson's numbers may be artificially inflated.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time (#17 in the NFL).New York's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Tampa Bay's #19-ranked pass defense has allowed 253 passing yards per game this year.Tampa Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.3% of their targets, which ranks them #15-best in the NFL.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's linebackers rank #15 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wilson to exceed his player prop total 63.3% of the time. He projects for 236.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $21.10. That makes its return on investment yield +18%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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