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Zach Pascal

Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Zach Pascal Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -115.
  • Pascal has been on the field for 87.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 92.9% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #92 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Houston's defense has allowed 176 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.70) against the Texans this season.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.6% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).
  • Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Houston Texans safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.09 yards per target this season, ranking in the #13 percentile.
  • Pascal has been in the #20 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.2% completion rate.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Indianapolis is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.0% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • His target share this season has been 15.6% -- #66 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pascal is projected for -1.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Colts project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).
  • Pascal's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.25. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.

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