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Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 7.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 71.2% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 65.3 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.5% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Johnson's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Carolina's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#28-most in football).Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Johnson has been on the field for 46.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 46.6% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #42 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 7.1% -- #40 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.63 yards per target this season, ranking in the #37 percentile.Johnson has been in the #60 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.6% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.61) against the Panthers this season.Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 45.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.04. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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