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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Boyd has been on the field for 71.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.5% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.8% -- #78 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Boyd has been in the #82 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.6% completion rate.The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.8% of their targets this season, (#8-most in the league).San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Boyd's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Boyd is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.24 yards per target this season, ranking in the #53 percentile.San Francisco's defense has allowed 155 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#20-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.48) against the 49ers this season.The Bengals project to run 61.6 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bengals offensive line has given the QB 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.97. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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