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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-105/-130) with an implied projection of 245.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 250.5 @ -130.
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PROS:
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He's been the #3-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 70.2% clip.This offense passes the ball 66.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).The Dolphins offensive line has given Tua Tagovailoa 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.The New York Jets enter this game with the #26-best pass defense this season, allowing 269 yards per game through the air.The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.6% of their targets, ranking #30 in the NFL.New York's defense has been #32-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.97 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Jets have had the #23-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #24-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #31-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have stacked the box on 21.9% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Tagovailoa has passed for 218 yards per game this year, #26-best in the league.Miami is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Tua Tagovailoa's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Tagovailoa has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.14 yards per target.Miami has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Miami Dolphins have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Dolphins project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.7% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jets defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jets linebackers have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 257.9 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.01. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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