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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 218.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 217.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 218.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The New York Jets enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 261 yards per game through the air.The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.7% of their targets, ranking #29-best in the NFL.The New York Jets defense ranks #32-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.87.New York's safeties grade out as the #25-best in pass coverage this year.New York's linebackers grade out as the #31-best in pass coverage this year.The New York Jets have stacked the box on 21.9% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Lawrence has passed for 207 yards per game this year, #29-best in the league.He's been the #35-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.5% clip.Efficiency-wise, Lawrence has been #37 in the NFL this season, averaging 5.74 yards per target.The Jaguars project to run 61.9 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.4% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jacksonville has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).Trevor Lawrence's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.New York's cornerbacks grade out as the #21-best in pass coverage this year.Jets defensive ends have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jets linebackers have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Lawrence putting up 210.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.86 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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