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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 217.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 215.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 217.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Jacksonville is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Tennessee Titans enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 279 yards per game through the air.Titans defensive tackles have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Titans linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Lawrence has passed for 208 yards per game this year, #29-best in the league.He's been the #37-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 56.4% clip.Efficiency-wise, Lawrence has been #36 in the NFL this season, averaging 5.85 yards per target.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Jaguars project to run 60.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#11.1%).The Tennessee Titans have had the #3-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Titans defensive ends have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box on 9.9% of their plays this season, #25-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Trevor Lawrence's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.The Titans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.9% of their targets, ranking #13 in the NFL.Tennessee's defense has been #22-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.00 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tennessee Titans have had the #14-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 213.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.19 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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