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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Smith has been on the field for 70.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 80.2% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 15.7% -- #67 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 3.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #3-most yards per target (9.40) against the Jets this season.New York Jets safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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Smith has been in the #30 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.3% completion rate.New Orleans is a 5.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 57.9% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 45.3% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.80 yards per target this season, ranking in the #39 percentile.New York's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).The Jets have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.5% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 61.1 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Smith's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 37.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.88 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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