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Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has ranked #2 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Dallas has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Dallas is a 6.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 41.4% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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The Cowboys project to run 61.1 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.The New Orleans Saints have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 92 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New Orleans's defense has allowed 3.50 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#1-least in football).Saints defensive ends have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints safeties have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Pollard has been the #29-leading rusher this season, tallying 47 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 29.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #46 percentile among running backs.He has received 33.5% of Dallas's carries this year -- #40 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pollard is projected for 2.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 37.5% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.5% of the time in this contest.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 41.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.94. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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