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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 307.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 292.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 307.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Brady has passed for 329 yards per game this year, #1-best in the league.He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Brady has been #4 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.93 yards per target.Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Buccaneers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 67.9% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Tom Brady's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given Tom Brady 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.5% of their targets, ranking #29 in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #24-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons linebackers have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #8-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.7%).The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #16-best pass defense this season, allowing 256 yards per game through the air.Atlanta's defense has been #17-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.88 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 363.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $30.81. It's return on investment would yeild 27%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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