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Tim Boyle Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, Tim Boyle Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 183.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 196.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 183.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Detroit Lions are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Lions are a 9.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Seattle's #31-ranked pass defense has allowed 285 passing yards per game this year.Seattle has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.7% of their targets, which ranks them #32-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Seattle's defense is #27-best. This is because they allowed 8.15 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #28-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's defensive ends rank #29 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Seahawks, they've stacked the box on 20.1% of their plays this season, #4-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, the Lions have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #4-most in football and means Boyle's numbers may be artificially inflated.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.7% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Detroit to drop back to pass on 55.8% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Detroit has run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Lions have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's defensive tackles rank #10 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Detroit has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.Detroit's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Detroit's offensive has kept pressure off Tim Boyle for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL).The Seattle Seahawks have had the #21-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's linebackers rank #18 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Boyle to exceed his player prop total 53.3% of the time. He projects for 191.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.30 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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