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Tim Boyle Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
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Tim Boyle Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 175.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Detroit is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 262 yards per game through the air.The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.6% of their targets, ranking #28-best in the NFL.Atlanta's safeties grade out as the #31-best in pass coverage this year.Atlanta's linebackers grade out as the #30-best in pass coverage this year.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons linebackers have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Detroit has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offense passes the ball 57.7% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).Atlanta's cornerbacks grade out as the #9-best in pass coverage this year.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.9 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Tim Boyle's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given Tim Boyle 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-best in football).The Atlanta Falcons defense ranks #19-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.85.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Boyle putting up 249.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 76.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $48.62. Its return on investment would yield +42%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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