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Tee Higgins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Tee Higgins Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 70.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Higgins ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 76.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Higgins ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.2% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Higgins ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.6% of passes this season.Higgins ranks in the #88 percentile and has put up 9.79 yards per target this season.The Las Vegas Raiders rank #24-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.7%.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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The Raiders's pass defense ranks #2-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 121 yards per game this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 7.34 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #3-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Higgins open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Higgins for a -0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Higgins's 68.1% completion rate marks him in the #64 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Raiders cornerbacks rank #15 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Raiders safeties rank #17 in pass coverage.THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 57.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Higgins to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time. He projects for 66.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.51 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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