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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 233.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.0% clip.Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Broncos offensive line has given Teddy Bridgewater 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Cincinnati Bengals enter this game with the #29-best pass defense this season, allowing 273 yards per game through the air.The Bengals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.6% of their targets, ranking #24 in the NFL.Bengals linebackers have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 59.8 plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.Denver is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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Bridgewater has passed for 229 yards per game this year, #19-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Bridgewater has been #16 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.36 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 60.5% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.0% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teddy Bridgewater's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).Cincinnati's defense has been #20-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.83 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #18-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box on 15.7% of their plays this season, #12-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 239.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.11 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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