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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 241.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #4-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.7% clip.Efficiency-wise, Bridgewater has been #12 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.60 yards per target.Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with the #4-best pass defense this season, allowing 220 yards per game through the air.Los Angeles's defense has been #9-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.50 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chargers defensive ends have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Chargers linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Bridgewater has passed for 244 yards per game this year, #17-best in the league.The Broncos project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.1% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Teddy Bridgewater's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#15.0%).The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.4% of their targets, ranking #18 in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #21-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Los Angeles's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #12-quickest in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box on 14.9% of their plays this season, #16-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 273.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.95. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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