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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 197.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 194.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 197.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Heinicke's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 64.2 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Washington's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Washington has run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Philadelphia has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.5% of their targets, which ranks them #28-best in the NFL.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #27-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.9% of the time (#23 in the NFL).Washington's offensive has kept pressure off Taylor Heinicke for 2.58 seconds on average this year (#31-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The WFT have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).Philadelphia's #9-ranked pass defense has allowed 235 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Philadelphia's defense is #4-best. This is because they allowed 7.14 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #1-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Philadelphia's defensive tackles rank #3 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #20-best in the league, Heinicke has passed for223 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #17-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.4% clip.In terms of efficiency, Heinicke has been #22 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.10 yards per target.THE BLITZ projects Washington to drop back to pass on 60.1% of their plays in this game (#15-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Philadelphia's defensive ends rank #17 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Philadelphia's linebackers rank #13 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Eagles, they've stacked the box on 15.4% of their plays this season, #14-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Heinicke to exceed his player prop total 61.5% of the time. He projects for 228.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $17.33. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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