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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-125/-105), with an implied projection of 61.3 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 60.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -105.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.His 44.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #71 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 50.0% this year puts him in the #81 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Michel for a 25.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Rams have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #8-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.The 49ers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #26-most in the NFL this year at 9.7% of the time.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.Los Angeles has been the #28-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.5% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #28-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 34.8% of their plays.The 49ers defense has allowed 106 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #7-least in football.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 4.23 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #9-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of San Francisco have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of San Francisco have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of San Francisco have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel finds himself in the #65 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 50 yards.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.0 plays in this matchup, the #19-most on the game slate.The defensive tackles of San Francisco have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (12.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Michel to exceed his player prop total 56.8% of the time. He projects for 68.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $2.85. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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