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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 59.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #87 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 49.7% of New York's carries this year -- #25 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Barkley is projected for 13.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #31 against the run this year, holding opponents to 145 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.87 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).
  • Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The New York Giants offensive line has ranked #25 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • New York is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense runs the ball 35.2% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.2% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 34.4% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Barkley has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 39 yards per game on the ground.
  • The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Giants project to run 63.6 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.
  • Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chargers linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chargers safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Giants have faced a stacked box 14.9% of the time this season -- #14-most in football.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.8% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.59 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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