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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 59.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #87 percentile among running backs.He has received 49.7% of New York's carries this year -- #25 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Barkley is projected for 13.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #31 against the run this year, holding opponents to 145 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.87 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The New York Giants offensive line has ranked #25 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.New York is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense runs the ball 35.2% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.2% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.4% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Barkley has been the #40-leading rusher this season, tallying 39 yards per game on the ground.The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 63.6 total plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Giants have faced a stacked box 14.9% of the time this season -- #14-most in football.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.59 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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