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Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 21.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.
  • Baltimore has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Baltimore is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Watkins's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Baltimore Ravens have run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Ravens project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 53.8% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Watkins has been on the field for 57.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 57.4% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 13.5% -- #62 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Watkins is projected for -0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.65 yards per target this season, ranking in the #65 percentile.
  • Watkins has been in the #38 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.4% completion rate.
  • Cincinnati's defense has allowed 155 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.21) against the Bengals this season.
  • The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.8% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).
  • Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.7% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).
  • The Ravens offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 27.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.84. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.

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