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Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -115.
  • Tennessee is a 7.0-point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Titans offensive line has given Ryan Tannehill 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#21.8%).
  • Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Patriots linebackers have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box on 18.5% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • Ryan Tannehill's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The New England Patriots enter this game with the #7-best pass defense this season, allowing 229 yards per game through the air.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their targets, ranking #4 in the NFL.
  • New England's defense has been #6-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.29 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #3-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.

  • Tannehill has passed for 246 yards per game this year, #13-best in the league.
  • He's been the #15-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.6% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Tannehill has been #17 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.37 yards per target.
  • Tennessee has played in the #13-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Patriots defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • New England's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #18-quickest in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 240.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.73. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.

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