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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
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Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Tennessee is a 7.0-point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Titans offensive line has given Ryan Tannehill 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#21.8%).Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Patriots linebackers have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The New England Patriots have stacked the box on 18.5% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).Ryan Tannehill's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The New England Patriots enter this game with the #7-best pass defense this season, allowing 229 yards per game through the air.The Patriots have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their targets, ranking #4 in the NFL.New England's defense has been #6-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.29 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New England Patriots have had the #3-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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Tannehill has passed for 246 yards per game this year, #13-best in the league.He's been the #15-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.6% clip.Efficiency-wise, Tannehill has been #17 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.37 yards per target.Tennessee has played in the #13-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.The New England Patriots have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Patriots defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.New England's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #18-quickest in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 240.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.73. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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