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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #7 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.83 yards per target.Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Seahawks project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).The Washington Football Team enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 279 yards per game through the air.Washington's defense has been #24-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.20 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Washington Football Team have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have had the #32-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.WFT defensive ends have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.WFT linebackers have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Wilson has passed for 214 yards per game this year, #24-best in the league.Russell Wilson's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Seahawks offensive line has given Russell Wilson 2.50 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#8.8%).WFT defensive tackles have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #21-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.4% clip.This offenses projects to pass 58.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 24.9% of their passes this year, #21-most in the NFL.The WFT have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3% of their targets, ranking #22 in the NFL.The Washington Football Team have had the #20-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Washington's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #16-quickest in the NFL.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box on 12.9% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 259.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.36 and with a negative ROI of -0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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