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Russell Gage Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
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Right now, Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Gage ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 71.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Gage ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 76.0% of Atlanta's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Gage ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 20.4% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Gage for a 3.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Gage's 72.5% completion rate marks him in the #82 percentile among receivers.The Falcons are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Atlanta to drop back to pass on 63.6% of their plays in this game (#6-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for light snow in this game.The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 125 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.29 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.7%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #7 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.Atlanta's O-Line grades out as the #31-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Gage open.
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NEUTRAL:
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Gage ranks in the #54 percentile and has put up 8.17 yards per target this season.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time (#15 in the NFL).Atlanta has run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Falcons have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gage to exceed his player prop total 49.3% of the time. He projects for 46.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.04 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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