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Ronald Jones Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Ronald Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 27.1 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Jones has been the #53-leading rusher this season, tallying 26 yards per game on the ground.The Buccaneers project to run 64.0 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #25 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.Falcons safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 7.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #30 most in the league.
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CONS:
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He has been on the field for 16.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #23 percentile among running backs.Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 28.3% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 32.1% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 26.5% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #50 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 1.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#19-least in football).Falcons defensive ends have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.7% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 26.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.64 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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