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Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
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Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 38.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Penny is projected for 13.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Seattle is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 44.9% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Houston Texans have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 147 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Houston's defense has allowed 4.84 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#30-least in football).Texans defensive ends have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans linebackers have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 9.2% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #28 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 36.5% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.5% of the time in this contest.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 26.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #44 percentile among running backs.He has received 19.5% of Seattle's carries this year -- #63 percentile when it comes to running backs.Seattle has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Seahawks project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.The Houston Texans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #11 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 41.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.33 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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