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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 21.9 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -120.

PROS:

This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.

Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.

The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

Houston is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

This offenses projects to pass 62.7% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).

CONS:

Collins has been in the #26 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 58.7% completion rate.

This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).

Collins's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

NEUTRAL:

Collins has been on the field for 49.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 64.4% of Houston's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #58 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 10.9% -- #54 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Collins is projected for 1.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.73 yards per target this season, ranking in the #37 percentile.

Seattle's defense has allowed 148 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#22-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.92) against the Seahawks this season.

The Seahawks have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.8% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).

Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.

The Texans project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.4% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $16.86. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.

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