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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 78.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Chubb has been the #2-leading rusher this season, tallying 106 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 54.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among running backs.He has received 59.6% of Cleveland's carries this year -- #12 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 42.2% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.2% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.9% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Cleveland Browns have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 58.1 total plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Cleveland is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 88 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 4.20 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #6-most in football.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cleveland Browns offensive line has ranked #21 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chubb is projected for -5.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #22 percentile among running backs.Ravens defensive ends have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Ravens linebackers have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Ravens safeties have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 69.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.28. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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