| |
Mike Williams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Williams has been on the field for 82.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 87.1% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.1% -- #81 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.98 yards per target this season, ranking in the #69 percentile.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.2 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.7% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.2% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -1.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.Williams has been in the #51 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.4% completion rate.Kansas City's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.20) against the Chiefs this season.Williams's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.46. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
