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Mike Williams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Williams has been on the field for 80.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 85.3% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.4% -- #82 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.6% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.2% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.6%).
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CONS:
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The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.4% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.84 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.Williams has been in the #33 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.5% completion rate.Denver's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.08) against the Broncos this season.Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.The Chargers project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.Williams's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.29 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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