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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
  • Williams has been on the field for 80.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 85.3% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 20.4% -- #82 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 62.6% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.2% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.6%).

  • CONS:
  • The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.4% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.84 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.
  • Williams has been in the #33 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.5% completion rate.
  • Denver's defense has allowed 162 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #20-most yards per target (8.08) against the Broncos this season.
  • Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Chargers project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • Williams's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.29 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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