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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
 
 
 
Right now, Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 71.5 (-110/-110).

The money is on the Under: it opened 75.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 71.5 @ -110.
PROS:
  • In terms of playing time, Evans ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 83.4% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Evans ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 90.4% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season.
  • In terms of earning targets, Evans ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.8% of passes this season.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Evans for a 6.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Evans ranks in the #92 percentile and has put up 9.95 yards per target this season.
  • This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #7-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Evans's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.
  • As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 66.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.8% of the time (#1 in the NFL).
  • THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 70.0% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
  • Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Evans open.

  • CONS:
  • The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.
  • As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.
  • The Buccaneers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Evans's 66.9% completion rate marks him in the #58 percentile among receivers.
  • The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.
  • The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Evans to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time. He projects for 83.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.19. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
     
     
     
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