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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Evans has been on the field for 84.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 91.3% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.2% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.44 yards per target this season, ranking in the #77 percentile.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 64.6 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 72.2% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 70.6% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Evans's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Buffalo's defense has allowed 117 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.12) against the Bills this season.The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.7% of their targets this season, (#28-most in the league).Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Evans is projected for 1.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.Evans has been in the #47 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.0% completion rate.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 61.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.96 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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