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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Pittman has run a route on 96.5% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.Pittman has been in the 85th percentile when it comes to receiving efficiency this year with 10.1 yards per target.Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.48) against the Texans this season.Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst unit in the league in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the 4th-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.3%).
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CONS:
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The Indianapolis Colts have run the 2nd-slowest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Colts project to run just 61.4 plays in this contest, the 4th-least of the week.Indianapolis is a 14.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The NRG Stadium roof projects to be open this week, and the weather forecast is calling for high winds of 15-mph, which makes catching passes much more difficult.Indianapolis's offensive line has been 8th-worst in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to wide receivers like Pittman.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pittman is projected for 0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers.The Colts project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).Pittman's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.63 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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