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Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Hardman has been in the #86 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.2% completion rate.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.2% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).Hardman's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 149 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#23-most in football).Kansas City is a 10.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Hardman has been on the field for 51.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 56.0% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 12.6% -- #58 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Hardman is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #53 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.49 yards per target this season, ranking in the #59 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #16-most yards per target (8.20) against the Steelers this season.The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.5% of their targets this season, (#20-most in the league).This offenses projects to pass 61.7% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.74. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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