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Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 242.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 246.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 242.5 @ -115.
  • Ryan has passed for 243 yards per game this year, #13-best in the league.
  • He's been the #12-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Detroit Lions defense ranks #29-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.37.
  • Detroit's cornerbacks grade out as the #30-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Detroit's linebackers grade out as the #28-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Lions defensive ends have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.9% of their targets, ranking #10-best in the NFL.

  • Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #22 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.10 yards per target.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Falcons project to run 63.1 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 60.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
  • The Detroit Lions enter this game with the #20-best pass defense this season, allowing 255 yards per game through the air.
  • Detroit's safeties grade out as the #21-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Lions defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Lions linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Detroit Lions have stacked the box on 14.1% of their plays this season, #18-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Ryan putting up 297.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.83. Its return on investment would yield +29%.

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