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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 242.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 246.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 242.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Ryan has passed for 243 yards per game this year, #13-best in the league.He's been the #12-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Detroit Lions defense ranks #29-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.37.Detroit's cornerbacks grade out as the #30-best in pass coverage this year.Detroit's linebackers grade out as the #28-best in pass coverage this year.Lions defensive ends have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Atlanta is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.9% of their targets, ranking #10-best in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #22 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.10 yards per target.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.1 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).The Detroit Lions enter this game with the #20-best pass defense this season, allowing 255 yards per game through the air.Detroit's safeties grade out as the #21-best in pass coverage this year.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Lions linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box on 14.1% of their plays this season, #18-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Ryan putting up 297.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.83. Its return on investment would yield +29%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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