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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 234.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 235.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Ryan has passed for 243 yards per game this year, #13-best in the league.He's been the #11-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.4% clip.Atlanta is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.9% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.8% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.49ers linebackers have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The San Francisco 49ers enter this game with the #8-best pass defense this season, allowing 236 yards per game through the air.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #10-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.49ers defensive ends have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box on 9.7% of their plays this season, #26-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #21 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.06 yards per target.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #16-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.2% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).San Francisco's defense has been #16-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.75 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 255.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.50. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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