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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 230.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #12-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.2% clip.The Falcons project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #10-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Panthers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.1% of their targets, ranking #24 in the NFL.The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box on 21.0% of their plays this season, #3-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Atlanta has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Carolina Panthers enter this game with the #2-best pass defense this season, allowing 202 yards per game through the air.The Carolina Panthers have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Panthers defensive ends have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Panthers linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ryan has passed for 246 yards per game this year, #14-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #24 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.03 yards per target.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.5%).Carolina's defense has been #13-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.56 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Carolina Panthers have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Carolina Panthers have had the #17-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 236.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.40 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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