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Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
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Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 51.6 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Brown has been on the field for 79.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 88.8% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 26.9% -- #96 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Brown has been in the #71 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.2% completion rate.Baltimore has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baltimore is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Brown's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Baltimore Ravens have run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 53.8% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Brown is projected for -1.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.76 yards per target this season, ranking in the #40 percentile.Cincinnati's defense has allowed 155 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.21) against the Bengals this season.The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.8% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 61.7% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).The Ravens offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.99 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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