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Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
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Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Brown has been on the field for 76.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 87.1% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 27.3% -- #96 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.Brown's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Baltimore Ravens have run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 61.4 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Baltimore is a 4.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 46.4% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Brown is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.21 yards per target this season, ranking in the #50 percentile.Brown has been in the #62 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.2% completion rate.Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #12-most yards per target (8.68) against the Steelers this season.The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.7% of their targets this season, (#12-most in the league).This offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).The Ravens offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.48. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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