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Mac Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
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Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 239.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #2-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 70.7% clip.The Patriots offensive line has given Mac Jones 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England have faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#25.7%).The Tennessee Titans enter this game with the #27-best pass defense this season, allowing 273 yards per game through the air.Titans defensive ends have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Tennessee's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 3 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #30-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New England is a 7.0-point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Titans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.2% of their targets, ranking #10 in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans have had the #2-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box on 10.5% of their plays this season, #25-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has passed for 238 yards per game this year, #18-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Jones has been #16 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.49 yards per target.New England has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Patriots project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.7% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).Mac Jones's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.5% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Tennessee's defense has been #14-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.78 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tennessee Titans have had the #12-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Titans defensive tackles have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Titans linebackers have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 228.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.16 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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