| |
Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
He has been on the field for 62.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.He has received 65.8% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #7 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fournette is projected for 10.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Tampa Bay is a 11.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Fournette has been the #15-leading rusher this season, tallying 60 yards per game on the ground.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Buccaneers project to run 60.1 total plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 28.0% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 31.6% of the time in this contest (#32 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New Orleans Saints have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 94 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New Orleans's defense has allowed 3.74 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#1-least in football).Saints defensive ends have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints defensive tackles have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Saints linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Saints safeties have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.7% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.00 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
