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Laquon Treadwell Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Laquon Treadwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Treadwell is projected for 7.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.5% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars project to run 64.3 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Jacksonville is a 14.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 5.79 yards per target this season, ranking in the #11 percentile.Treadwell has been in the #3 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 41.3% completion rate.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.6% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Treadwell has been on the field for 42.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 36.7% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #33 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 8.0% -- #43 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (7.96) against the Rams this season.Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.Treadwell's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 37.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $18.75. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.
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