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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
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Right now, Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 262.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 259.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 262.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Murray has passed for265 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #5-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.4% clip.In terms of efficiency, Murray has been #5 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.79 yards per target.Arizona's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 65.7 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.Arizona has run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Seattle's #31-ranked pass defense has allowed 288 passing yards per game this year.Seattle has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.1% of their targets, which ranks them #32-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Seattle's defense is #27-best. This is because they allowed 8.21 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #31-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's defensive ends rank #29 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Seahawks, they've stacked the box on 20.1% of their plays this season, #4-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, the Cardinals have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #8-most in football and means Murray's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Cardinals enter as a 5.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cardinals have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's defensive tackles rank #10 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.2% of the time (#15 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 60.6% of their plays in this game (#17-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #16-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Seattle's linebackers rank #18 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Murray to exceed his player prop total 63.3% of the time. He projects for 301.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $21.20. That makes its return on investment yield +18%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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