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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 267.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Cousins has passed for 254 yards per game this year, #10-best in the league.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings project to run 66.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 64.0% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Vikings offensive line has given Kirk Cousins 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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Minnesota has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#2-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Kirk Cousins's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.The Los Angeles Rams defense ranks #7-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.28.Los Angeles's cornerbacks grade out as the #2-best in pass coverage this year.Rams defensive ends have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Rams linebackers have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box on 4.9% of their plays this season, #32-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #22-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Cousins has been #23 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.09 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).The Los Angeles Rams enter this game with the #16-best pass defense this season, allowing 250 yards per game through the air.The Rams have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.2% of their targets, ranking #18-best in the NFL.Los Angeles's safeties grade out as the #20-best in pass coverage this year.Los Angeles's linebackers grade out as the #14-best in pass coverage this year.Rams defensive tackles have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Cousins putting up 300.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.27. Its return on investment would yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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