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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 273.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 275.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cousins has passed for 272 yards per game this year, #9-best in the league.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings offensive line has given Kirk Cousins 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#20.8%).Detroit's defense has been #31-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.76 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Detroit Lions have had the #30-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Detroit Lions have had the #31-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Detroit Lions have had the #27-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Lions defensive ends have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Minnesota has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Minnesota is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Kirk Cousins's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.The Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.2% of their targets, ranking #10 in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #16-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.5% clip.Efficiency-wise, Cousins has been #18 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.38 yards per target.The Vikings project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Detroit Lions enter this game with the #14-best pass defense this season, allowing 249 yards per game through the air.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Lions linebackers have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box on 14.1% of their plays this season, #18-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 298.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.29. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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