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Kenny Golladay

Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-125/-110) with an implied projection of 37.6 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -125.
  • He has run a route on 75.7% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 16.8% -- #71 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Golladay is projected for 4.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.
  • New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Dallas's defense has allowed 178 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).
  • The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Giants project to run 67.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
  • New York is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 63.7% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Golladay has been in the #9 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 52.3% completion rate.
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.2% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).
  • Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
  • Golladay's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Golladay has been on the field for 64.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.12 yards per target this season, ranking in the #49 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.20) against the Cowboys this season.
  • Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 37.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.10 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

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