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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Tennessee's defense has allowed 196 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.93) against the Titans this season.

The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (25.7%).

CONS:

Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.

The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

New England is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

NEUTRAL:

Bourne has been on the field for 45.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 66.4% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 13.0% -- #58 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Bourne is projected for 0.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.

The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.4% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).

Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.

The Patriots project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.

This offense passes the ball 60.7% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).

Bourne's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.5% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 35.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.

The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.76 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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